Thailand is experiencing a troubling decline in birth rates, highlighting major challenges ahead for the Kingdom, A study by Mahidol University revealed that while 1.2 million births were recorded in 1972, this number has constantly been falling since 1984.
In a Bangkok Post article, the Department of Provincial Administration under the Ministry of Interior, births have remained under 600,000 annually since 2019. This figure dropped to 517,934 in 2023, and 461,421 in 2024–showing a decrease of more than 56,000 in a year. This is the first time in seven decades that annual births have dropped below 500,000, highlighting Thailand’s rapid shift towards an ageing population.
This downward trend is noticeable at the provincial level, where falling student numbers have led to the merging of many small public schools. The Office of the Basic Education Commission (OBEC) has closed or merged over 1,217 schools between 2017 and 2023 to save costs. However, this has inadvertently made education less accessible in remote areas, with children often having to travel further away to attend school.
While public schools struggle, international schools are thriving. Data from the Office of the Private Education Commission shows that international schools in Thailand rose from 234 in 2022 to 249 in 2024, with student enrollment increasing from 66,352 to 77,734–a 17.15% increase in over two years. Most students enrolled are from foreign or mixed-nationality backgrounds, which may help insulate international schools from the immediate effects of declining birth rates, though the long-term impact is uncertain.
At the same time, more urban parents, those who are tech-savvy, are turning to alternatives like homeschooling or fully embracing online education. While still not widespread, these trends point to a changing attitude toward traditional schooling. If conventional schools cannot adapt, they may eventually be replaced by more flexible learning approaches.
Thailand’s shrinking birth rate is emerging as one of the country’s most pressing issues, with significant implications for education, the labor market, and the broader economy. Japan’s experience serves as a stark example: after decades of declining births, it now struggles with a reduced workforce and sluggish economic growth.